Trans-Pacific container lanes may bypass the typical post-Lunar New Year slowdown and maintain peak-season traffic levels if an ongoing trade dispute with China continues prompting U.S. shippers to accelerate imports.
Container rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast dropped 3% to $4,904 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) for the week ending Feb. 7, according to the latest Baltic Index from Freightos. Meanwhile, Asia–U.S. East Coast rates declined 1% to $6,656 per FEU.
“Trans-Pacific rates have softened since early January, but with continued frontloading in anticipation of tariffs, we may not see the usual post-Lunar New Year demand dip,” noted Judah Levine, head of research at Barcelona-based Freightos (NASDAQ: CRGO). “Depending on the extent of this pull-forward effect—many shippers have been stockpiling since November—rates could remain elevated or even rise in the coming weeks as tariff uncertainty persists. This atypical demand surge now could lead to weaker-than-usual demand and rates later in the traditional peak season.”
While recent U.S. tariff adjustments on imports from Mexico and Canada had little impact on ocean freight, the 10% tariffs on Chinese goods have continued to drive early shipments through major U.S. container gateways.
Levine highlighted that former President Trump’s proposed 60% tariffs on all Chinese imports—set in motion by his initial trade memorandum and potentially actionable as early as May—are part of a broader tariff strategy. The National Retail Federation’s latest U.S. ocean import volume report indicates that, since November, importers have been frontloading shipments in anticipation of higher tariffs, a trend expected to sustain elevated volumes into the second quarter.
Additionally, recent shifts in U.S. policy regarding duty-free entry for low-value “de minimis” imports have led some shippers to transition from air freight to ocean carriers.
E-commerce platforms such as Temu and Shein capitalized on duty-free air shipments to rapidly build U.S. market share. However, as the U.S. government deliberates a long-term approach, Mexico and the European Union have also imposed their own de minimis restrictions.
“This pause could serve as a transition period for small B2C imports from China, allowing Chinese e-commerce platforms to reduce their dependence on de minimis and air freight,” Levine noted. “Many of these platforms have already increased their use of ocean freight to build inventories in Mexico and the U.S. Reports suggest that Temu is already promoting products from sellers with U.S.-based stock for American shoppers.”
Elsewhere, Asia-North Europe rates fell 8% to $3,386 per FEU, while Asia-Mediterranean prices declined 10% to $4,549 per FEU.
“Ocean freight rates from Asia to Europe continued their downward trend last week, now sitting 40% below early January levels before the Lunar New Year,” Levine wrote. “Shippers on this route likely advanced shipments to adjust for Red Sea diversions. With little sign of a demand rebound to clear holiday backlogs, rates are expected to decline further as the market enters its typical post-LNY slowdown. To stabilize pricing—already near the floor set by Red Sea disruptions—carriers are expected to increase blank sailings on this lane.”
Source: www.freightwaves.com
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